Obama's Rise Starts With The People Of Iowa

LFR'S PERSONS OF THE YEAR: THE VOTERS OF IOWA

Two thousand-eight will be go down as the year of Barack Obama. No publication in their right mind would argue with this assessment, but the end of eight years of partisan bickering under President Bush began in earnest during a snowy January night when the caucus-goers of Iowa proved that a black man could indeed become President of the United States. For this act of political bravery and vision the voters of Iowa are the LFR Persons of the Year.

Back in October of last year, the inevitability of Sen. Hillary Clinton's run to the White House began to decrease with reports of disarray in her Iowa campaign staff. The LFR wondered at this time whether Clinton might finish third in the Jan. 3 caucus--she did--but, it was not John Edwards who reaped the rewards, instead Obama easily won the nation's first contest and set the tone for the rest of the campaign season in the name of slogans such as "change we can believe in" and "Yes we can".

It wasn't just that Obama outsmarted Clinton on the ground in Iowa; this was expected. The Clintons going back to 1992 never engaged the voters of Iowa like they did in New Hampshire. President Clinton deferred to native son Sen. Tom Harkin in 1992 and ran unopposed in 1996. The sound of change, though, rang like a clarion call to voters unwilling to believe Obama could actually win the presidency when a Midwestern state featuring demographics of 92 percent whites threw up their arms in despair over the damage wrought by Republican rule and unequivocally set forth the rise of Obama on America. He would be upset in New Hampshire by a Clinton comeback but 13 straight victories along with the momentum it achieved became an unstoppable force for Clinton and ultimately the Republican challenger--Sen. John McCain.

Here's a sampling of the commentary from early January:

Arianna Huffington of the Huffington Post said, "Because tonight voters decided that they didn't want to look back. They wanted to look into the future -- as if a country exhausted by the last seven years wanted to recapture its youth."

Ed Morrisey at the Captain's Quarters wrote, "Obama beat Hillary in a state that has a very small African-American demographic; he won not by playing the race card, but by simply offering a departure from Clintonian politics."

Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Dick Polman seemed to be reading into the future saying, "He’s the 'change' candidate unless and until somebody else swipes the label. That won’t be easy, because now he looks like the leader of a burgeoning movement, and that’s catnip for independents and non-establishment Democrats who have long yearned to shake things up."

A diarist at Daily Kos makes the most illuminating point of all, "Tonight we saw the the core of a future progressive majority make its presence known in Democratic politics. Young Voters are not a hidden vote or icing on the cake, and after tonight, everyone knows it. "

It is easy to forget where this all started before voters in Iowa met in cramped high school gyms and clammy Elk's Lodges to thrust the candidacy of Obama towards its destiny almost exactly 11 months later. Obama was a likable, handsome candidate who could spin one hell of a speech, but until Iowa these attributes did not make a serious candidate.

The roots of Obama's successful campaign first spread in Iowa. His attention to unifying the country. The decision to never make race an issue. His ability to rally the youth and his use of sophisticated web tools such as emailing, text-messaging and grassroots organizing captured the mood of Iowans and later the entire country.

It is likely that historians will look kindly on Jan. 3, 2008 as the day America began to heal and the nation is indebted to the people of Iowa.

Obama And The Beginning Of A Political Movement

OBAMA WINS AND BRINGS THE YOUNGLINGS WITH HIM

Clearly, Obama's victory in Iowa upends all conventional thinking. He may be black, but this win had nothing to do with race. That's a good thing. The statistic that a black man won in state that 95 percent lilly white is potent, though because it says in a profound way that his presidency is highly possible and gives credence that his candidacy is far more than a man running for office, but bonifide movement.

The most exciting development for his campaign and for American civics is that he delivered the youth and first-time caucus goers. It's a iffy proposition to count on the youth vote because it's so fickle and easily distracted by iPods, DVDs and MySpace, but Obama nearly double the number of participants in Iowa. A very exciting development and if he wins the Democratic nomination will prove deadly to the hopes of any Republican in the general election.

Unless Obama commits any unbelievable flub in the next four days in the Granite State, he will win New Hampshire and look very strong in South Carolina's primary which features a majority of black voters.

Romney Finishes Second Like Edwards Wasting Resources

McCAIN TRAIN REVS UP FOR RUN TO THE NOMINATION

Romney's final numbers in Iowa are not bad on the face of it. They only look ominous much like John Edwards's because so much time and, in Romney's case, money was spent for a distant second.

But, it was second and could look even better if he was somehow able to win the New Hampshire primary. He's in the running, but like Iowa he has candidate peaking at right time.

The Granite State loves tough-minded politicians like McCain, if Romney can't win a state bordering his own Massachusetts, the argument can be made that voters who presumably have been watching Romney for years in Boston know best and repudiated his candidacy.

FRED THOMPSON
The Politico website said Thompson would bail if he didn't win 15 percent. He didn't, but came close. He narrowly beat out McCain in Iowa and still has a strong third place standing in New Hampshire.

It still third with little outlook of moving up. If Thompson drops out, it could be argued that the rest of the field below him should do likewise. In any other race, his prospects are undeniably dim, but there isn't a candidate in the Republican field who can claim number one.

SEN. JOHN MC CAIN
The big winner in Iowa could be McCain. Imagine the kid who doesn't study for the big test and still gets a B+. That's McCain in Iowa, who didn't even campaign there and spoke against the state beloved ethanol subsidies. He still finish with a strong 12 percent and on to New Hampshire.

McCain made the huge bet on the war and it's finally beginning to payoff. That coupled with the lack of a candidate with true conservative credentials, makes the Arizona senator, the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination.

Huck Wins, But Apathetic Feeling Still Lingers

DAVID BEATS GOLIATH SOLELY WITH THE HELP OF BORN AGAINS

With his win in the Iowa Republican caucus, his candidacy becomes the latest example of how hard it is to prognosticate presidential politics a year in advance.

When Huckabee announced his candidacy a year ago, I wrote why someone with no chance whatsoever would waste their time in running. What a difference a year makes.

What's interesting though, is that this rousing victory where he was outspent by Mitt Romney by the tune of 20-to-1, isn't translating well to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. Sen. John McCain's suddenly rise there with its proud independent streak is becoming the story.

Republicans are just not excited about this field. Normally an underfunded, but successful campaign gets a quick infusion of cash when people see it can actually win. Few have that sense with Huckabee and see his overwhelming support by Iowa born-agains was the reason he won there.

He won't win in New Hampshire and even though evangelicals reside overwhelmingly in South Carolina, there's still a great deal of servicemen who are loyal to McCain.

The bottom line is that Huckabee's win again underscores the lack of any strength and excitement in the Republican party. A Huckabee nomination might leave an opening for a third party candidate like Mike Bloomberg entering the race by Fourth of July

Edwards Finishes Strong Second, But It's Just Not Enough

LOW UNION TURNOUT COULD BE A DEATH KNELL FOR N.C. SENATOR

Finishing second in Iowa at first glance seems very encouraging. He beat out Sen. Hillary Clinton for second, but he also finish a distant second to Obama. Edwards garnered 30% of caucus goers which was about three or four percentage points less than a highly encouraging second. This is how far Edwards has come in the four years since a second place finish in Iowa probably buoyed his chance to be John Kerry's VP--not very far.

The big disappointment yesterday was not finishing so far off the pace, but that Edwards's union appeal was completely misrepresented. According to exit polling, the former senator from North Carolina was the third choice among Democrats.

Without a doubt, this fact is the death of Edwards's campaign. He made union involvement the linchpin of his populist campaign. The Edwards strategy was to parlay union-backing in Iowa and Nevada to start strong, but it's not happening. In hindsight, the writing could have been on the wall when one of the country's strongest union, SEIU, didn't endorse him across the board.

New Hampshire looks like a third place finish as does South Carolina. By the time, Nevada comes around, Obama's momentum will be huge over Hillary's comeback kids persona will have taken root.

THE REST OF THE FIELD
Another fact that lends credence to the Obama movement was the poor performance of Gov. Bill Richardson, who reportedly instructed followers to back the Illinois senator if he wasn't viable at a precinct.

These second choice caucus goers apparently fled to Obama and might account for the pre-caucus three-way tie in Iowa.

Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Joe Biden, the graybeards of the campaign said farewell. It's notable that Sen. Biden, whom many mocked for his pubic kissing up to Sen. Clinton. Was he auditioning to be the future Secretary of State? Apparently not, since most of followers were instructed to choose Obama as their second choice.

Inevitability Is Gone, But Hillary Still Has Money To Burn

THE CLINTON SPIN MACHINE FIRES UP FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE

The horrific third place finish that the LFR predicted two months ago became very real yesterday even before Iowans moved in droves to caucus. When Clinton's campaign began lowering the bar so starkly and columnists began criticizing her hubris in even trying in Iowa.

To political junkies this loss was less than shocking and doesn't mean her bid to be the first female president is in the trash. But, to the other 300 million-plus Americans, the enevitability of her campaign took a a huge hit. Just like the candidate herself, the reaction will be polarizing. Either it confirms suspicions that the country is not ready for a woman in the White House or it will be a call to arms for women and allies of the Clinton dynasty.

Clinton's advantage is that her coffers can go deep into Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5 even if she doesn't win much. It also could give rise to her campaign using her husband's "Comeback Kid" moniker in either New Hampshire or South Carolina. Do not underestimate the Clinton's ability to spin anything.

Remember, Bill Clinton lost by eight points in the 1992 New Hampshire primary to Paul Tsongas and was still able to claim victory.

Her candidacy took a major hit, but she's the only candidate to could significantly take on water and still continue sailing. She's not done and, in the end, the inevitable turnover in her campaign will bring a more steady and cogent message.

Obama Will Leave Iowa With More Than Hope

This is how the LFR sees tonight's Iowa Caucus:

DEMOCRATS

Sen. Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 27%

Sen. Hillary Clinton 24%

Gov. Bill Richardson   6%

Sen. Joe Biden   5%

Rep. Dennis Kucinich  1%

Sen. Chris Dodd   0%

REPUBLICANS

Mike Huckabee 36%

Mitt Romney 33%

Rep. Ron Paul 11%

Fred Thompson  9%

Sen. John McCain 7%

Rudy Giuliani  4%

Rep. Duncan Hunter  0%

Iowa Caucus Primer

HOW DOES THE CAUCUS SYSTEM WORK?

WHAT'S A HAWKEYE?

HOW NIXON AND ETHANOL SUBSIDIES MADE AMERICA FAT

Thompson Likely Gone After Iowa Caucus

ENDORSEMENT OF McCAIN WILL HAVE NOMINAL EFFECT ON RACE

The Freddy Thompson Experience looks to be on its last legs.

The Politico is reporting tonight that the Law & Order actor is likely to drop out of the Republican race for the White House if he doesn't garner at least 15 percent of the caucus goers tomorrow.

It's likely that with Sen. John McCain's suddenly rise in Iowa, that Thompson will be hard-pressed to reach that figure.

In a race when it's beneficial to peak just before the caucus, Thompson peaked about three months before he even announced his candidacy. It was downhill from there. 

After announcing, he rose from seclusion noticeably slimmer and gaunt and was criticized for handing out lame, nondescript answers in tandem with a ubiquitous tut-tut and head shake.

Also, The Politico is speculating that Thompson will endorse Sen. McCain, who is good friend. The effects of such a endorsement should be nominal for McCain since he wasn't actively campaigning in Iowa and Thompson's popularity casted nary a blip on the New Hampshire radar.

Dems Could Be Looking At A Virtual Tie In Iowa

SEN. CLINTON COULD BE LOOKING AT A CEILING OF 25 PERCENT

Salon.com columnist Walter Shapiro has been around Washington and political campaigns for decades, here's what he's seeing on the ground in Iowa:

At this point in 2004, just a few days before the caucuses, I had begun to pick up anecdotal evidence (from crowd size and interviews with likely caucus-goers) that Howard Dean was slipping and John Kerry and John Edwards were surging. But this time around, I have not seen or heard anything that prompts me to move away from the conventional wisdom that Obama, Clinton and Edwards are locked in a three-way tie.

Shapiro sees a dead heat in the Democratic Iowa caucus, but he also has uncovered some interesting nuggets.

While traveling with the Edwards campaign, Shapiro found the former senator's base is solidly in his corner, largely due to his time and organization in Iowa.

Sen. Barack Obama's popularity is hinged upon students caucusing faithfully for him. This, if true, might make the seven-point lead in today's Des Moines Register as tenuous. Rarely, does the youth vote make for a successful campaign, but that's not to say Sen. Obama is candidate many have ever seen.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's much derided brigade of Golden Girls are also a problematic demographic not because of their likelihood of caucusing, but because of health and weather. Shapiro does make this interesting point on Sen. Clinton, her constituentcy is either with her or against her, therefore unlikely to gain any new support.

Of all the polling out there, the safest bet is Hillary reaching a ceiling of only 25 percent of the caucus goers making the possibility of her finishing a very disappointing third.

If this happens, it will a clear indictment of whom Iowans believe is the real candidate of change--Obama and Edwards.

Huckabee Defends Without A Wink And A Smile

CANDIDATE USING BUSH'S 2000 PLAYBOOK

Does Mike Huckabee think his faux ignorance is charming, somehow endearing in its innocence?

First he garnered guffaws from the press when he announced he was foregoing planned attack ads against Mitt Romney and then showed the ads that he wasn't going show, anyway. Then, he claimed without a bit of irony in his voice that it was because the press wouldn't believe such ads existed.

Yesterday, Huckabee said he was "absolutely" backing the striking Writer's Guild, but will cross the picket line, nonetheless to appear on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno.

Later, he claimed erroneously, that the striking writers had made a deal with all of the late night programs. When he was corrected by reporters that only David Letterman's production company had secured a deal with the writers he said, "Oh", followed by "hmmm".

Was this another occasion where Huckabee's campaign has been sorely behind the news as when it was a day and a half behind the news that an NIE report said Iran was not actively producing nuclear weapons or is he plainly lying or spewing double talk about his support for labor.

How else could Huckabee answer a question about crossing the picket on a highly publicized strike and still appear to care about the working man? He can't truthfully and therefore he ducked the question with sound effects and quickly answered another question.

I believe Huckabee is not as unprepared as recent press accounts have made him out to be. That's not to say his candidacy is rooted in good policy, either. He feign ignorance on the Iran NIE account and the writer's strike questions because he can't answer them without rustling some feathers.

Many voters, I hope, will place their candidates attributes against the idealogy and personality of President Bush for guidance in how not to choose a president. If so, remember that Americans found a sly, smiling, personable double talker who glazed every issue over with Jesus in 2000 and the rest is history.