Wednesday, October 22, 2008

AP Poll: Red Herring Or Ominous Sign?

POLL MAY SIMPLY BE AN OUTLIER; ABC REPORTS 11 POINT OBAMA LEAD

Readers of Yahoo! News and people checking their email awoke this morning with news the presidential campaigns was deadlocked with 13 days to go.

The Associated Press poll gives Sen. Barack Obama a 44-43 percent lead with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Nearly every poll taken since last Wednesday's final presidential debate have shown Obama's edging Sen. John McCain by six to eight points.

The reason according to the AP story?
What some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
It also claims McCain's prospects have risen due to new support from whites making less than $50,000.

What's troubling about this analysis is the odd dynamic of middle-to-lower class Americans--presumably those with less--being drawn to an analogy that seems anathema to sharing the proverbial wealth.

Curiously, an ABC/Washington Post poll released today, shows a completely different snapshot, showing Obama with an 11-point lead.

What's notable about this poll is that Obama has crossed the 50 percent threshold in support from white males.

The AP poll may simply be what pollsters call an outlier. The exquisite website, Real Clear Politics calculates the national average of all major polls to favor Obama by seven points. A Pew Research poll shows a 14 point lead for Obama, while the AP poll reveals the smallest spread.

So which poll is correct? Of course, none of them, but it is interesting to speculate whether the AP story is merely a red herring or indicative of a swell of new support or mind-changing among voters.

One ominous fact hidden in the AP story is it's heavy use of random cell phone numbers. Many pundits fault polls that fail to acknowledge the modern fact that more people, notably young people, rely on cell phones rather than the traditional land lines.

This, too, would seem to favor Obama and his cadre of new, young voters and not McCain.

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