What To Look For on Election Day

THE STORYLINE: Election 2004 will be remembered as the year when the not only younger people revived their interests in the issues but also first time voters. A mandate will be reached for Sen. John Kerry because of this group. This election was always a referendum on the war in Iraq and America found the wisdom to separate its folly from their fears of terrorism.

TURNOUT HIGH: High turnout always helps the Democrats and an 8-10% increase in voter participation would go far in tipping the election to Kerry. Many pundits have wondered if the new voters will actually show up to the polls. The question has already been answered if you look at the high early voting turnout. It is estimated that already 1 in 5 ballots have already been cast. If you look at Florida where I believe the enthusiam and anger over the 2000 election has been ignored by many pollsters.

END OF THE POLLING FIRMS: Could this be the end of how polling companies perform their craft? All the polls have failed to account for the new voters in their calculations. When the Zogby polling firm finally accounted for younger voters with cell phones, the verdict was overwhelmingly in Kerry's favor, 55-40. These numbers are eerily similar to the numbers that voters 18-30 are showing. Among other reasons, this is how Kerry will gain a mandate tomorrow with over 51% of the electorate.

YOUR VOTE STILL COUNTS IN CALI: "Your vote doesn't matter," says many in California. This line of thought is straight out of the state's Republican party. In reality, your vote is very important in gaining your candidate a mandate in the popular vote. Without over 50% of the vote, a candidate shouldn't be able to claim the masses approved of his plans in the next four years. Bush failed to win a mandate or even the popular vote yet his adminstration acted like it for four years.

BUSH STUCK AT 48%: At this stage of the game an incumbent's final numbers usually indicate his final numbers on election day. In most polls today, 48% is the highest figure that Bush garnered. With turnout high and saturated with Democrats this number may even be inflated.

KERRY WINS BIG 3: It was said that 2 of 3 states including Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida will be enough to win the White House. Pennsylvania is definitely in Kerry's column. Florida will be Jeb Bush-proof because of high turnout and the fact that the Bush adminstrations hand picked Cuban-American candidate for Senator is in a gunfight with a lesser known candidate, Betty Castor. Possible shenanigans will evolve from Ohio; notably Cleveland, but it also will go Democratic by nights end. Because Ohio does not identify between party affiliations, it is hard to know who has the upper hand. We do know that Ohio has lost many jobs and registeration has gone through the roof. Again, high turnout and high registration typically shows a "throw the bums out" attitude from the electorate.

ARKANSAS TRAVELER: Of all the southern states, Arkansas is the only one with any sort of Democratic party. Polls last week showed it tightening up and the DNC sent Bill Clinton there yesterday. Bush strategist, Karl Rove mentioned in the NY Times Monday that he purposely baited the Kerry team down to Arkansas to spend some money and time. HA HA! Did he really or might this be the first big story of election day. Election guarantee: If at 4pm pacific time, the polls begin to highlight a possible upset in Arkansas; pop the champagne bottles.

BAD NEWS FOR DEMOS: Despite problems with the Native American population in South Dakota, Republican John Thune will upset Senate Minority leader, Tom Daschle. The Democrats will not take over the Senate, either. Who will be the next minority leader? Word is Sen. Harry Reid of nearby Nevada will be picked. Known as a moderate in the Senate, Reid probably won't be much better than the lackadaisical Daschle.