An Election Day For The History Book

2008 ELECTION DAY PREVIEW

election'08: the race to clean the place - 1 day to go

[This election] will be remembered as the year when the not only younger people revived their interests in the issues but also first time voters. A mandate will be reached...because of this group.

These two lines appeared in LFR on November 1, 2004, on the eve of President Bush's re-election victory over Sen. John Kerry, yet they could be written in the same tone on the eve of the 2008 presidential election.

Ultimately, young voters did not respond any more disproportionately than any other election and the nation endured four more years of President Bush.

It is likely to occur again, yet because of sizable gains among white males, young voters showing up at the polls at roughly the same rate could give Sen. Barack Obama the White House.

Here's what to look for Tuesday:

McCAIN NEEDS TO WIN 5 OF 6 BATTLEGROUND STATES
Like Kerry four years ago, McCain has only a few quite iffy scenarios to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat as he said this weekend.

McCain unrealistically must win a combination of five of six battleground states that include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado.

Kerry needed to win Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to beat George W. Bush. He only won the Quaker State.

OBAMA HOVERS OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE POLLS
According to data compiled by realclearpolitics.com, Obama leads in all 15 major national polls. More importantly, Obama holds a slight majority of the vote in 14 of the 15 polls, with the International Business Daily poll having him leading 48-43.

Fifty percent is the key for Obama, making any number of undecideds moving to McCain relatively moot.

PRESIDENTIAL LANDSLIDES
When it comes to election landslides it is hard to beat Reagan trouncing Walter Mondale by 18 points in 1984 and Richard Nixon laying the wood on George McGovern in 1972.

Presidential "landslide" is a relative term within politics. Where a seven point win other races might be a squeeker, the 6-7 point average margin of victory most polls show for Obama constitute a landslide.

Merely reaching 50 percent would be historical for Democrats. Obama would be the first to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932. President Clinton was stymied by third party candidate Ross Perot in 1992 and scored 49.2 of the vote against Bob Dole four years later.

OBAMA BEGINS TO NAME CABINET
Invariably as it becomes apparent Obama will be elected president, campaign staffers will begin peddling the names of possible cabinet members.

Thus far, Rep. Rahm Emmanuel, a former Clinton staffer has been mentioned as a possible Chief of Staff, while a New York magazine story quotes sources saying Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will not be retained by Obama. In his place another former Clintonite and Harvard president Larry Summers may be summoned.

Obama may go Republican with Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana at the state department and Colin Powell may play some role in bringing the nation's military thought process back to circa 1998.

REPUBLICANS BEGIN THE BLOODLETTING
The losing party usually brings out the knives for their guy's failed attempt at the White House. This year it could get more ugly than usual.

McCain may have religious conservatives angry he did turn towards Jesus before selecting their darling, the lovely Sarah Palin. Old time conservatives are already seething over the loss of the "real McCain", "The Maverick". Of course, this is the McCain persona those same people found incorrigible on Capitol Hill

What is likely to happen in the next few weeks is cover stories and columns showing infighting, constant bickering and a case of too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.

SENATE NEARS FILIBUSTER-PROOF
Democrats in the Senate need 60 members including Connecticut's Joe Lieberman and Vermont's Bernie Sanders in their caucus.

They appear to be falling just short of sixty with 58 looking likely. Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and Al Franken in Minnesotacould be the key for Democrats to crack a filibuster-proof 60, something a presidential has not had since President Carter in 1976.

THE RISE OF THE LATINO VOTING BLOC IN THE WEST
In 2000, Al Gore barely won New Mexico. Four years later, President Bush won it by less than one percent. In 2008, New Mexico, with a large influx on Latino voters and a Republican bent on alienating this burgeoning majority, the state is firmly blue for Obama.

The fever may be spreading. Colorado is leaning blue. So is Nevada. Most surprisingly in recent weeks, has been the movement in the electorate towards Obama in Big Sky states like Montana and North Dakota. Neither of these states are likely to turn blue in 2008, but may go the way of New Mexico in 2012.

For Obama: Don't Mess Up; McCain: Be Nice

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE PREVIEW

Let's assume John McCain decides to debate tomorrow. Assume that he won't be the kid who doesn't study for the big test and has been covertly practicing his laugh lines undercover.

The twist on whether this debate will occur Friday at 6 p.m. pacific is the attention it has built. The nation's focus on this election is frenetic. The controversy over McCain's gamesmanship could make this one of the most watched presidential debates ever.

Here's what viewers should look for during tomorrow's debate in Oxford, Miss.:

1. Make Obama mad.
Make no mistake about it, Obama has a large ego. His oratory brilliance is based upon his comfort in speaking rhetorically. Have you ever chatted with a college professor? No matter your expertise on the subject, you will always leave feeling less sure about your opinions. The McCain campaigns highlighting of this fact is fair and will try to exploit his air of superiority.

James Fallows, writing in The Atlantic, watched on this year's primary debates in one whole week. He lives in China and for readers of the magazine, his numerous features on China have made The Atlantic seem more like The South China Sea Monthly. Here he describes Obama's irritability when questioned:

Obama “is vain about his idealism and ‘nobility,’” a staff member for one of Obama’s Democratic opponents (not Clinton) told me on the phone. “He is thin-skinned about having his motives and competence questioned, so that’s what you do.”...Obama may still be innocent enough to be shaken by it. McCain made many dismissive references to Obama after Obama became the presumptive nominee. The easy next step is to do so while looking at him.

An article posted this week on WSJ.com quotes a McCain staffer that says the candidate will be looking for certain keywords in Obama's speech that could be exploited.

Advisers have told Sen. McCain to watch out when Sen. Obama uses the phrase, 'As I've said before...' One McCain adviser said it is used 'when Obama actually changes his position, to pretend it's what he's always said.'

The article also gives Obama specific tips for winning the debate. Three of the fear tips highlight things Obama should not do. Usually the candidate ahead in the polls, as Obama is, merely needs to play defensive and "not lose" to win.

• Don't act like a professor
• Don't ramble on both sides of a question
• Don't use sarcasm or flip answers that could be misinterpreted.
• Show your passion

2. Make McCain Old And Grumpy
It's no secret that McCain's temper is legendary on Capitol Hill. In Bob Woodward's recent book on the Bush White House McCain is quoted using quite salty language that falls just short of the king of presidential pottymouths, Richard Nixon.

You can assume McCain will be on his finest manners Friday night although, as mentioned in an earlier post, the lopotomy given to McCain's vivid personality has also made him less adventurous and adroit in public. Sort of like they gave him a Zanax to cool it down.

The aspect of this debate that neither can candidate can control is how the youthful Obama contrasts on high-def with the 72-year-old McCain. It may not be a slip of the tongue that causes viewers to see McCain as old and crotchety, but his natual appearance.

Fallows attempted to relate this point to Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale in 1984.

He will look and sound old and weak next to Obama. Ronald Reagan was about McCain’s current age when he ran for reelection against Walter Mondale, but Reagan looked 10 years younger than McCain does now. Obama is 10 years younger than Mondale was and looks younger still. McCain must hope that he can apply a version of Reagan’s line about his opponent’s “youth and inexperience.” But lacking Reagan’s outward haleness, he risks coming across like Dole against Clinton.

Here's what the Wall Street Journal says McCain needs to do to win:

• Stop saying, "My friends". It's a verbal crutch destined for a drinking game.
• Just because he doesn't know something, it's not neccesary to point it out so bluntly.
• Without much practice, he might be nervous, don't let that be interpreted as "testy".

3. Win The Expectations Game
The Great Debater, George W. Bush, "won" a majority of his debates against Al Gore and John Kerry based on this premise. The Obama campaign is wise to this as evidenced by a quote in today's USA Today that says McCain has the edge in the first debate that deals with foreign policy.

It will be hard for the Obama people to blunt the perception that their candidate is the far superior statesman even though, while he has improved significantly in the format, it is not his most impressive talent.

What could happen is Obama could raise expectations if he is able to relax and fight. For a frontrunner this could be risky and could also knockout a teetering McCain. Fallows looked closely at Obama's 2004 Senate debate with conservative Alan Keyes. While the dorky Keyes was nothing but a warm body for the GOP, the Obama of 2004 was an attack dog, throwing biting one-liners and totally within is own comfort zone.

The Obama of the presidential debates seemed to be enduring the sessions; the Obama who took on Alan Keyes seemed to be having fun. When attacking Keyes’s background and ideas, which he did frequently, he sounded wry rather than ponderous or angry. He didn’t seem to mind needling or attacking Keyes, or seem upset when Keyes attacked.

Of course, what either candidate has to say and how they say it will be important, but many times these debates are won and loss on the public's perception and how well or badly each candidate gives credence to certain prevailing wisdom--Obama that he's "uppity" and McCain that he's old.