Obama's Recovery Plan Moves To The Center

WITH TIME RUNNING OUT, CONGRESSIONAL DISUNITY STYMIES OBAMA

Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he has no qualms with President-elect Barack Obama's stimulus plan – and that could be a problem in itself.

After eight years of tax cuts under President Bush, some Democrats – especially Northeastern liberals like Sen. John Kerry and Rep. Barney Frank – think that giving tax breaks to businesses and middle-class families will not create long-term job growth. Scott Lehigh, writing in the Boston Globe's op-ed page, thinks tax cuts make little sense and wonders whether they exist in Obama's plan as a carrot to Republicans.

Democrats are also leery about heaping more debt on the books. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit will reach $1.2 trillion in 2009, not including Obama's stimulus plan. Some in Washington also believe the total stimulus price tag will ultimately reach closer to $1 trillion. Obama's preliminary estimate is around $775 billion.

With 11 days until inauguration day, Obama, like President Franklin D. Roosevelt 76 years ago, will be afforded a brief honeymoon period in Washington and this is the impetus for the presidential feel of yesterday's speech at George Mason University.

Former labor secretary under President Clinton, Robert Reich, believes the government stimulus should reach upwards of $900 billion spread over two years and urges for it to be done quickly. "Without federal action, next year could be even worse," Reich told congressmen at a forum discussing the stimulus bill in Washington.

On his blog, Reich urges Congress to spend without caution of overextending itself.

As the buyer of last resort, the federal government must respond if that cycle is to be reversed. In my judgment, this will require a stimulus of about 6 and a half percent of gross domestic product, or a total of some $900 billion, spread over two years. That’s my estimate for the shortfall in private demand. But the federal government should stand ready to spend larger sums if necessary to get the economy back on track toward full capacity. The danger is not that the government will do too much; the danger is that it will do too little, too late.

Reich agrees with Obama's plan to upgrade the nation's infrastructure as does Paul Krugman, but some disagree with the basic Keynesian approach. Larry Kudlow at the National Review mocks Obama's progressive pedigree by saying his stimulus plan is somewhat Reaganesque. "Nobody really believes infrastructure spending will end the recession or create permanent new jobs. However, it’s interesting just how much the Obama plan has changed since the election," he wrote.

Here lies the problem facing Washington: in the shadow of a clumsily rolled out $700 billion bailout for the financial sector where many do not know where the money went and fewer gained any stimulus from the investment, how will what many people see as a chronically ineffective legislative branch deal decisively with the economy? Obama wants a bill ready to sign from Congress by Feb. 13. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is already pushing to extend the deadline. Meanwhile, unemployment reaches 7.2 percent and the prospect of this year being somewhat better than the last decreases


This article and others can be found at The Commonwealth Club of California's blog commonwealthclub.blogspot.com. Also, read about the unspoken demise of employed Americans who are not only making less money per hour, but working less of them.

Obama And The Faux Fros

If you write at a black web site like The Root, you can photoshop photos of the next president in various hairdos and get away with it.

You can also find a rundown of hairstyles worn by female politicians here, but not one of Sen. John McCain with a mohawk or Sen. John Kerry with a mullet.

An Election Day For The History Book

2008 ELECTION DAY PREVIEW

election'08: the race to clean the place - 1 day to go

[This election] will be remembered as the year when the not only younger people revived their interests in the issues but also first time voters. A mandate will be reached...because of this group.

These two lines appeared in LFR on November 1, 2004, on the eve of President Bush's re-election victory over Sen. John Kerry, yet they could be written in the same tone on the eve of the 2008 presidential election.

Ultimately, young voters did not respond any more disproportionately than any other election and the nation endured four more years of President Bush.

It is likely to occur again, yet because of sizable gains among white males, young voters showing up at the polls at roughly the same rate could give Sen. Barack Obama the White House.

Here's what to look for Tuesday:

McCAIN NEEDS TO WIN 5 OF 6 BATTLEGROUND STATES
Like Kerry four years ago, McCain has only a few quite iffy scenarios to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat as he said this weekend.

McCain unrealistically must win a combination of five of six battleground states that include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado.

Kerry needed to win Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to beat George W. Bush. He only won the Quaker State.

OBAMA HOVERS OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE POLLS
According to data compiled by realclearpolitics.com, Obama leads in all 15 major national polls. More importantly, Obama holds a slight majority of the vote in 14 of the 15 polls, with the International Business Daily poll having him leading 48-43.

Fifty percent is the key for Obama, making any number of undecideds moving to McCain relatively moot.

PRESIDENTIAL LANDSLIDES
When it comes to election landslides it is hard to beat Reagan trouncing Walter Mondale by 18 points in 1984 and Richard Nixon laying the wood on George McGovern in 1972.

Presidential "landslide" is a relative term within politics. Where a seven point win other races might be a squeeker, the 6-7 point average margin of victory most polls show for Obama constitute a landslide.

Merely reaching 50 percent would be historical for Democrats. Obama would be the first to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932. President Clinton was stymied by third party candidate Ross Perot in 1992 and scored 49.2 of the vote against Bob Dole four years later.

OBAMA BEGINS TO NAME CABINET
Invariably as it becomes apparent Obama will be elected president, campaign staffers will begin peddling the names of possible cabinet members.

Thus far, Rep. Rahm Emmanuel, a former Clinton staffer has been mentioned as a possible Chief of Staff, while a New York magazine story quotes sources saying Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will not be retained by Obama. In his place another former Clintonite and Harvard president Larry Summers may be summoned.

Obama may go Republican with Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana at the state department and Colin Powell may play some role in bringing the nation's military thought process back to circa 1998.

REPUBLICANS BEGIN THE BLOODLETTING
The losing party usually brings out the knives for their guy's failed attempt at the White House. This year it could get more ugly than usual.

McCain may have religious conservatives angry he did turn towards Jesus before selecting their darling, the lovely Sarah Palin. Old time conservatives are already seething over the loss of the "real McCain", "The Maverick". Of course, this is the McCain persona those same people found incorrigible on Capitol Hill

What is likely to happen in the next few weeks is cover stories and columns showing infighting, constant bickering and a case of too many Chiefs and not enough Indians.

SENATE NEARS FILIBUSTER-PROOF
Democrats in the Senate need 60 members including Connecticut's Joe Lieberman and Vermont's Bernie Sanders in their caucus.

They appear to be falling just short of sixty with 58 looking likely. Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and Al Franken in Minnesotacould be the key for Democrats to crack a filibuster-proof 60, something a presidential has not had since President Carter in 1976.

THE RISE OF THE LATINO VOTING BLOC IN THE WEST
In 2000, Al Gore barely won New Mexico. Four years later, President Bush won it by less than one percent. In 2008, New Mexico, with a large influx on Latino voters and a Republican bent on alienating this burgeoning majority, the state is firmly blue for Obama.

The fever may be spreading. Colorado is leaning blue. So is Nevada. Most surprisingly in recent weeks, has been the movement in the electorate towards Obama in Big Sky states like Montana and North Dakota. Neither of these states are likely to turn blue in 2008, but may go the way of New Mexico in 2012.

Specter of Bin Laden Favors McCain

OBAMA IS THE CANDIDATE BELIEVED TO BE MUSLIM BY INORDINATE NUMBER OF AMERICANS

Newsweek's Jonathan Alter thinks a re-emergence of Osama bin Laden during the last two weeks of the presidential campaign may not hurt Sen. Barack Obama as it did to Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

Alter puts forth the idea Kerry made an error in failing to push rhetoric about bin Laden four years ago, while Obama, in his opinion, has not.

Seven years after 9/11, the country is in a different place, and the Obama campaign would respond to a bin Laden tape in a different way. For two years, Obama has been reminding audiences that the Bush administration has failed to catch bin Laden.

On an Oct. 9 episode of the Charlie Rose program, journalists including David Brooks and the loopy Mark Halperin did an extreme tap dance around the notion McCain's only hope in this election was either a traumatic terrorist attack or the meddling of al Qaeda media attack.

Aside from poking around military intervention on the Pakistani border, Obama has not sufficiently formed the requisite narrative that al Qaeda is still running around the globe active and poised to attack, nor as Alter says reminded voters that bin Laden has not been apprehended by the Republican president.

Like Kerry, Obama is very much vulnerable to intervention from the caves of rocky Afghanistan.

______________________

Obama's campaign has to be praying the media arm of al Qaeda recently ran out of VHS and eight-track tapes.

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The problem has more to do with the media upheaval in the day of 24-hour news cycles than the perception of Obama's inexperiences versus McCain's relative experience.

The numbers may show Obama with a fairly strong lead nationally as well as a multitude of possible electoral equations due to tightening races in battleground states, yet certain important demographics are trending his way, but by no means solid.

White males, although reported today in a poll passed a majority for Obama, could be easily swayed back to McCain if bin Laden butts into the campaign. Women, could also latch onto the Straight Talk Express if an atmosphere of danger arises.

The most tenuous factor could be voters who reluctantly support Obama despite racial prejudices who merely needed a reason to vote for the old white man.

Like it or not, too many voters, possibly your neighbors and the guy down at The Home Depot, believe or suspect Obama to be a stealth Muslim. For this reason, Obama's campaign has to be praying the media arm of al Qaeda recently ran out of VHS and eight-track tapes.

Above all, a change in conversation, whatever it may be, favors McCain.

LFR Podcast: Law & Order: We're All Victims Unit

CLICK BELOW TO LISTEN TO THE LFR PODCAST, "THE LIBERAL RUSH"

Speaking the truth to Sen. John Kerry will get you tasered. Fighting racial unequity will get you thrown in the slammer. Law and order run amok in America this week.

Also, Mr. Law & Order, himself, Fred Thompson is back for another licking Liberal Rush-style. The Republican candidate for president can't seem to be prepared.

All that and the quote of the week.